Comparative Study of Artificial Neural Networks and Hidden Markov Model for Financial Time Series Prediction

الملخص

Financial Time Series analysis and prediction is
one of the interesting areas in which past data could be used
to anticipate and predict data an d information about future.
There are many artificial intelligence approaches used in the
prediction of time series, such as Artificial Neural Networks
(ANN) and Hidden Markov Models (HMM). In this paper
HMM and HMM approaches for predicting financial time
series are presented. ANN and HMM are used to predict
time series that consists of highest and lowest Forex index
series as input variable. Both of ANN and HMM are trained
on the past dataset of the chosen currencies (such as EURO/
USD which is used in this paper). The trained ANN and
HMM are used to search for the variable of interest
behavioral data pattern from the past dataset. The obtained
results was compared with real values from Forex (Foreign
Exchange) market database [1]. The power and predictive
ability of the two models are evaluated on the basis of Mean
Square Error (MSE). The Experimental results obtained are
encouraging, and it demonstrate that ANN and HMM can
closely predict the currency market, with a small different
in predicting performance